Grassland ecosystems harbour unique biodiversity, but agriculture has led to their widespread degradation and conversion, especially in the temperate zone. However, opportunities for restoration and for reconciling agricultural production and conservation goals are emerging in some temperate grasslands.
This is especially so on the steppes of Kazakhstan, where the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered the widespread abandonment of cropping and grazing systems. Abandoned lands constitute considerable untapped agricultural potential, which is likely to be exploited in the near future, yet would also allow for restoring steppe ecosystems. Balancing the potentially conflicting goals of conservation and agricultural production is currently hampered by a poor understanding of (1) the spatial patterns of post-Soviet land-use change, (2) the complex interactions of cropland abandonment, grazing, fire regimes and biodiversity, and (3) various potential future trajectories in land use.
In BALTRAK, we aim to quantify spatio-temporal trends in land use and fire in Kazakhstan, to understand the links between land use, fire, and biodiversity, and to explore potentials for increasing agricultural production. We will use our results to assess current and future trade-offs between steppe restoration and agricultural production. Together, this will provide guidance for implementing place-based rural development strategies that lessen the emerging land-use conflict between conservation and agriculture in Kazakhstan’s steppe region. Our interdisciplinary approach will rely on remote sensing, field- based biodiversity research, and econometric modelling. We will integrate major stakeholders in agriculture and the conservation sector to ensure the relevance and implementation of our results. A strong focus will be placed on capacity building among Kazakhstani stakeholders and scientists, and on academic exchange with young Kazakhstani scholars.
BALTRAK will focus on Kostanai and Akmola provinces in Kazakhstan. This study region was chosen as it covers a large gradient from the dry steppes and semi-deserts in the South mainly used as pasture to intensive cropping systems in the North (meadow steppe). It also contains an east-west steppe vegetation gradient, and data from previous research in the area exist that can be incorporated into BALTRAK analyses.
BALTRAK is structured into five work packages:
WP 1: Mapping post-Soviet land-use and land-cover change
In this work package, satellite images will be used to reconstruct land-use and land-cover changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. We will generate fine-scale, multi-seasonal image composites using 30m resolution Landsat TM/ETM/8 data for circa 1990, 2000 and 2014. Based on this, post-Soviet land-use change (1990–2014) in croplands and pastures will be mapped. We will also quantify spatiotemporal patterns of fires for the study area using MODIS and Landsat images.
WP 2: Assessing agricultural production potentials
We plan to use governmental agricultural statistics to estimate the extent of cultivated areas for major crops and livestock at fine spatial scales since 1990, and to map post-Soviet changes in major indicators of land-use intensity (crop and livestock production). Future agricultural potentials will be identified and mapped, and potential effects of alternative scenarios on future agricultural production assessed.
WP 3: Understanding biodiversity interactions with land use and fire
We aim to evaluate the effect of past, current and future land-use patterns on vegetation successional trajectories and key ecosystem processes. Also, the impact of changes in land use and fire regimes on bird, mammal, and plant diversity, abundance and distribution will be assessed. By this, we will provide baseline data for the conservation planning.
WP 4: Assessing current and likely future trade-offs between biodiversity and agriculture
In this work package, current and future trade-offs between food production and biodiversity will be quantified by identifying agricultural production and conservation goals that would balance competing land-use options. Equally important, priority areas for agriculture (cropping and grazing) and biodiversity conservation will be mapped in a stakeholder dialogue.
WP 5: Capacity building, stakeholder involvement, dissemination and project management
This ‘framework’ package serves to facilitate effective project coordination and capture synergies. It aims to maximize project outreach by synthesizing, communicating and implementing the scientific results. Also, intensive training during fieldwork and data analysis will be provided to young Kazakh scholars to increase their capacity.
BALTRAK will be realized by a consortium of two Kazakh and three German partners.
The Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Group at Münster University (Institute of Landscape Ecology) will coordinate the project and push synthesis of the results. They will lead the work on biodiversity surveys (Johannes Kamp) and steppe restoration (Norbert Hölzel).
The Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity in Kazakhstan (ACBK), the leading environmental NGO in Kazakhstan and an independent research institute, will be the main local partner. The project will be coordinated by Sergey Sklyarenko. ACBK staff and students will collect field data and spend extended period at the German partner institutions. ACBK will lead on the implementation of project results and Protected Area planning.
The Biogeography and Conservation Biology Lab of Humboldt University Berlin (Tobias Kuemmerle and Matthias Baumann) will be responsible for the remote sensing work, species distribution modelling and trade-off analyses (the latter together with Uni Münster and ACBK).
The Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) will estimate agricultural potentials and conduct econometric modelling. Daniel Müller and Alexander Prishchepov will lead this work package.
The University of Karaganda, Department of Geography, will select Kazakhstani MSc students and interns to be trained in the project, and also use their wide-ranging stakeholder contacts during the implementation of the project results. This work will be led by Aidar Aitkulov.
BALTRAK will be running from 01.01.2015 until 31.12.2017.
For general enquiries, please contact the project coordinator Johannes Kamp. For more specific questions, you might also want to get into contact with the leaders of the work packages (see ‘Partners’ tab).
Stirnemann IA, Hölzel N, Urazaliev R, Kuemmerle T, Baumann M, Donald PF, Kamp J (submitted) Past land-use and fire history affect occurence and density of Eurasian steppe birds
Brinkert A, Hölzel N, Sidorova TV, Kamp J (2016) Spontaneous steppe restoration on abandoned cropland in Kazakhstan: grazing affects successional pathways. Biodiversity and Conservation 25 (12): 2543–2561 [doi: 10.1007/s10531-015-1020-7]
Horion S, Prishchepov AV, Verbesselt J, de Beurs K, Tagesson T, Fensholt R (2016) Revealing turning points in ecosystem functioning over the Northern Eurasian agricultural frontier. Global Change Biology 22 (8): 2801-2817 [doi: 10.1111/gcb.13267]
Kamp J, Koshkin MA, Bragina, Katzner TE, Milner-Gulland EJ, Schreiber D, Sheldon R, Shmalenko A, Smelansky I, Terraube J, Urazaliev R (2016) Persistent and novel threats to the biodiversity of Kazakhstan’s steppes and semi-deserts. Biodiversity and Conservation 25 (12): 2521–2541 [doi:10.1007/s10531-016-1083-0]
Lameris T, Fijen T, Urazaliev R, Pulikova G, Donald PF, Kamp J (2016) Breeding ecology of the endemic Black Lark Melanocorypha yeltoniensis on natural steppe and abandoned croplands in post-Soviet Kazakhstan. Biodiversity and Conservation 25 (12): 2381–2400 [doi:10.1007/s10531-015-1041-2] Open access paper
Meyfroidt P, Schierhorn F, Prishchepov AV, Müller D, Kuemmerle T (2016) Drivers, constraints and trade-offs associated with recultivating abandoned cropland in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Global Environmental Change 37:1–15 [doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.01.003]
Wesche K, Ambarli D, Török P, Kamp J, Treiber J, Dengler J (2016) The Palaearctic steppe biome: a new synthesis. Biodiversity and Conservation 25 (12): 2197–2231 [doi: 10.1007/s10531-016-1214-7]
Kamp J, Urazaliev R, Balmford A, Donald PF, Green RE, Lamb A, Phalan B (2015) Agricultural development and the conservation of avian biodiversity on the Eurasian steppes: a comparison of land-sparing and land-sharing approaches. Journal of Applied Ecology 52 [doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12527]
Kraemer R, Prishchepov AV, Müller D, Kuemmerle T, Radeloff VC, Dara A, Terekhov A, Frühauf M (2015) Long-term agricultural land-cover change and potential for cropland expansion in the former Virgin Lands area of Kazakhstan. Environmental Research Letters 10 (5), 054012 [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054012]
Adaptation for Russian-language readers: Крэмер Р, Прищепов АВ, Мюллер Д, Кюммерле Т, Раделофф В, Дара А, Терехов А, Фрюхауф М (2015) Анализ длительной динамики изменения землепользования и потенциал расширения пахотных земель за счет заброшенных земель в регионе освоения Целинных Земель Казахстан. Earth from Space – the Most Effective Solutions. 2015 Vol. 20 Download. Open access paper.