Anticipation of Critical Transitions in Complex Systems
Complex systems are known to show at tipping points abrupt changes in their macroscopical behavior under smooth parameter variations. In recent years the identification and anticipation of tipping points of complex systems from measurement data received much attention in the scientific community. One approach relies on the general theory of complex systems and the result that close to tipping points systems that are formed by the nonlinear interaction of many subsystems show universal features. Although the constituting parts can be very different they all show phenomena like for example critical slowing down or critical fluctuations. This can be observed in a wide variety of systems from different scientific disciplines starting from Laser physics over pattern formation in chemical reactions, biological and medical systems and also in psychology. In the mathematical description of these phenomena the universality is reflected by the fact that close to such critical points the dynamics of very different systems can be described by the same basic types of equations. This universal behavior is the foundation of many of the current approaches to develop indicators for tipping points for ecological and social systems even in cases where modeling of the system of interest is difficult or up to now not possible. The intention of this workshop is to give an overview over recent developments in this field. The talks cover topics from such diverse fields as ecology, neuro science and physics.
Arndt Telschow, Oliver Kamps
Egbert van Nes, Wageningen University
Anticipating critical transitions in ecosystems
Mathew Adamson, Osnabrück University
Constructing risk profiles of critical transitions caused by boundary crises
Klaus Lehnertz, Bonn University
Anticipating epileptic seizures
Valerio Lucarini, University of Reading
Edge States in the Climate System: Exploring Global Instabilities and Critical Transitions
Arndt Telschow, CeNoS, University of Münster
Anticipating critical transitions in complex systems using nonlinear time series analysis
Oliver Kamps, CeNoS, University of Münster
Anicipating large scale power outtages - A case study
Registration is possible until August 21th. Registration fee is 20€.