IMMIDD Seminar - Tom Britton

Prof. Tom Britton (Department of Mathematics, Stockholm Universität) wird im April das IMMIDD-Seminar halten.
Das Seminar trägt den Titel: "A multi-season epidemic model with random genetic drift and transmissibility"

Abstract: "Seasonal epidemics, like seasonal influenza, varies between seasons both in size and timing of the peak. In order to increase understanding about this phenomenon, we study a multi-season epidemic model in which each new seasonal strain of the virus has a new random genetic drift (affecting prior immunity) and a new random transmissibility. Given these quantities, and the immunity status of the population coming into the new season, we can, using epidemic model theory, determine how many that will get infected during the season, and the immunity state of the population after the epidemic season. We analyse properties of this Markov chain to deduce its stationary distribution. We also derive the distribution of the final epidemic size during the season, given the immunity status of the population before the season and the speed of its initial growth. Joint work with Andrea Pugliese."

Das Seminar findet am Dienstag 21. April um 12 Uhr im Großen Seminarraum (DK03 120.072), Institut für Epidemiologie und Sozialmedizin, Domagkstraße 3, 48149 Münster statt.

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