Copyright © 2003 The International
Herald Tribune | www.iht.com
| These American
statesmen prefer the martial plan |
Paul Krugman NYT
Saturday, February 22, 2003 |
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Unreconstructed
NEW YORK The Marshall Plan was America's finest hour. After World
War I, the victors did what victors usually do: They demanded reparations
from the vanquished. But after World War II America did something unprecedented:
It provided huge amounts of aid, helping both its allies and its defeated
enemies rebuild.
It wasn't selfless altruism, of course; it was farsighted, enlightened
self-interest. America's leaders understood that fostering prosperity,
stability and democracy was as important as building military might in
the struggle against communism.
But one suspects that America's current leaders would have jeered at this
exercise in "nation-building." And they are certainly following a very
different strategy today.
It's not that the Bush administration is always stingy. In fact, right
now it is offering handouts right and left. Most notably, it has offered
the Turkish government $26 billion in grants and loans if it ignores popular
opposition and supports the war.
Some observers also point out that the administration has turned the foreign
aid budget into a tool of war diplomacy. Small countries that currently
have seats on the UN Security Council have suddenly received favorable
treatment for aid requests, in an obvious attempt to influence their votes.
Cynics say that President George W. Bush's "coalition of the willing"
turns out to be a "coalition of the bought off" instead.
But it's clear that the generosity will end as soon as Baghdad falls.
After all, look at America's behavior in Afghanistan. In the beginning,
money was no object; victory over the Taliban was as much a matter of
bribes to warlords as it was of special forces and smart bombs. But Bush
promised that America's interest wouldn't end once the war was won; this
time we wouldn't forget about Afghanistan, we would stay to help rebuild
the country and secure the peace. So how much money for Afghan reconstruction
did the administration put in its 2004 budget?
None. The Bush team forgot about it. Embarrassed congressional staff members
had to write in $300 million to cover the lapse. You can see why the Turks,
in addition to demanding even more money, want guarantees in writing.
The Turks know what happened in Afghanistan, and they also know that fine
words about post-Sept. 11 support for New York didn't translate into actual
money once the cameras stopped rolling.
Iraq will receive the same treatment. On Tuesday, Bush's spokesman Ari
Fleischer said Iraq could pay for its own reconstruction, even though
experts warn that it may be years before the country's oil fields are
producing at potential. Off the record, some officials have even described
Iraqi oil as the "spoils of war."
So there you have it. This administration does martial plans, not Marshall
Plans: billions for offense, not one cent for reconstruction.
Of course, postwar reconstruction in Europe and Japan wasn't just a matter
of money; America can also be proud of the way it built democratic institutions.
Alas, the Bush administration's postwar political plans are even more
alarming than its economic nonchalance.
Turkey has reportedly been offered the right to occupy much of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Yes, that's right: As we move to liberate the Iraqis, our first step may
be to deliver people who have been effectively independent since 1991
into the hands of a hated foreign overlord. Moral clarity!
Meanwhile, outraged Iraqi exiles report that there won't be any equivalent
of postwar de-Nazification, in which accomplices of the defeated regime
were purged from public life. Instead the Bush administration intends
to preserve most of the current regime: Saddam Hussein and a few top officials
will be replaced with Americans, but the rest will stay. You don't have
to be an Iraq expert to realize that many very nasty people will therefore
remain in power - more moral clarity! - and that the United States will
in effect take responsibility for maintaining the rule of the Sunni minority
over the Shiite majority.
If this all sounds incredibly callous and shortsighted, that's because
it is. But then what did you expect? This administration doesn't worry
about long-term consequences - just look at its fiscal policy. It wants
its war; there's not the slightest indication that it's interested in
the boring, expensive task of building a just and lasting peace.
E-mail: krugman@nytimes.com
Copyright © 2003 The International Herald Tribune
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