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The plan also calls for war-crimes trials of Iraqi leaders and a slow transition to an elected civilian government that could take months or years. In the initial phase, Iraq would be governed by an American military commander - perhaps General Tommy Franks, head of U.S. forces in the Gulf, or one of his subordinates - who would assume essentially the role that General Douglas MacArthur served in Japan after its surrender in 1945. One senior official said Thursday that the administration was "coalescing around" the concept, following discussions of various options with President George W. Bush and his top aides. But the official and others cautioned that there had not yet been any formal approval of an occupation plan, and that it was not clear whether allies had been consulted on it. In contemplating an occupation, the administration is scaling back the initial role for Iraqi opposition forces in a post-Saddam government. Until now it had been widely assumed that Iraqi dissidents both inside and outside the country would form a government, but it was never clear when they would take full control of their country. Thursday marked the first time the administration has discussed what could be a lengthy occupation by coalition forces, led by the United States. Officials said they wanted to avoid the chaos and infighting that have plagued Afghanistan since the defeat of the Taliban. Bush's aides said they also wanted full control over Iraq while American-led forces carried out their principal mission of finding and destroying weapons of mass destruction. The description of the emerging U.S. plan and the possibility of trials of Iraqi leaders for war crimes could be part of an administration effort to warn Iraq's generals of the unpleasant future they face if they continue to support Saddam. Asked what would happen if American pressure prompted a coup against Saddam, a senior official said in an interview Thursday, "That would be nice." But the official suggested that the U.S. military might enter and secure the country anyway, not only to eliminate weapons of mass destruction but also to ensure against anarchy in the weeks and months after Saddam's ouster. The revelation of the occupation plan marks the first time the administration has described in detail how it would administer Iraq in the days and weeks after a possible invasion, and how it would keep the country unified while searching for weapons of mass destruction. It would put an American officer in charge of Iraq for a year or more while the United States and its allies searched for weapons and got Iraq's oil fields working. For as long as the United States and its coalition partners administered Iraq, they would essentially control the second largest reserves of oil in the world, comprising nearly 11 percent of the world's proven resources. A senior administration official said Thursday that the United Nations oil-for-food program would be expanded to help finance the country's stabilization and reconstruction. Senior administration officials said Thursday that they were moving away from the idea of the model used in Afghanistan: Establishing a provisional government right away that would be run by Iraqis. Some top Pentagon officials have supported this approach, but the State Department, CIA and, ultimately, the White House, were cool to it. "We're just not sure what influence groups on the outside would have on the inside," said a senior administration official. "There would also be differences among Iraqis, and we don't want chaos and anarchy in the early process." Instead, officials said, the administration is studying the military occupations of Japan and Germany. But they stressed a commitment to keeping Iraq unified, as Japan was, and avoiding the kind partition that Germany underwent, setting the stage for the Cold War. The military government in Germany stayed in power for four years; in Japan it lasted six and a half years. Copyright © 2002 The International Herald Tribune |